With the election coming this Tuesday, here is my preview on the key gubernatorial elections that their state’s voters will be voting on Tuesday (or earlier if you already have done so).
DE-Gov: John Carney (D) v. Colin Bonini (R) v. Sean Louis Goward (L)
With Jack Markell (D) term-limited, this seat is open. John Carney is the prohibitive favorite to win the seat and keep it in Team Blue’s hands.
Rating: Safe D.
IN-Gov: John Gregg (D) v. Eric Holcomb (R) v. Rex Bell (L)
This seat is open due to current Governor Mike Pence (R) running as Vice President for the Donald Trump (R) presidential campaign. Holcomb, who was Pence’s running mate, was selected as Pence’s replacement. Gregg, who lost narrowly to Pence in 2012, is the clear but not 100% certain favorite to win.
Rating: Likely D
MO-Gov: Chris Koster (D) v. Eric Greitens (R) v. Cisse Spragins (L) v. Don Fitz (G)
Incumbent Gov. Jay Nixon (D) is termed out of the office, so a battle emerges between ex-Democrat (Greitens) and ex-Republican (Koster) battle it out for the right to govern Missouri for the next four years in this reddening state. Koster means a check on the GOP-dominated supermajority on certain issues, while Greitens means a GOP-dominated horror show in the Show-Me State.
Rating: Tilt D
MT-Gov: Steve Bullock (D) v. Greg Gianforte (R) v. Ted Dunlap (L)
Incumbent Steve Bullock (D) is favored to win another term as Governor, even as Trump is likely to win the state.
Rating: Likely D
NH-Gov: Colin Van Ostern (D) v. Chris Sununu (R)
This seat is open due to Gov. Maggie Hassan (D)’s run for the Senate against Kelly Ayotte (R). This state will be a very close call, but Dems may be narrowly favored in the end.
Rating: Tossup
NC-Gov: Roy Cooper (D) v. Pat McCrory (R) v. Lon Cecil (L)
Incumbent Gov. Pat McCrory (R) is in massive trouble because of the atrocious HB2 bill that was not only transphobic but also preempted local control on paid sick leave/minimum wage increases higher than the state minimum and hurt businesses, voter suppression policies, and GOP-dominated legislature’s craziness. This is a sign that Cooper will be the next Governor and turn North Carolina back to semi-sanity.
Rating: Likely D
OR-Gov (Special): Kate Brown (D) v. Bud Pierce (R) v. Cliff Thomason (IPO) v. James Foster (L)
This election is to fill the remainder of John Kitzhaber (D)’s term, who resigned in 2015. Kate Brown (D) will be the first openly bisexual Governor to be elected by the voters if she wins. Brown is the acting Governor after Kitzhaber’s resignation. The next regularly scheduled election is 2018.
Rating: Safe D
VT-Gov: Sue Minter (D) v. Phil Scott (R)
This seat is open due to Peter Shumlin (D) deciding on not to run for office again. Minter and Scott are in a tossup battle, as the lean of the state (which favors Minter) and the relative moderateness (or even liberalness) of a Republican by national standards in Scott are the main reasons for this rating. This one will be a nailbiter.
Rating: Tossup
WA-Gov: Jay Inslee (D) v. Bill Bryant (R)
Inslee and Bryant were the top two candidates in the August Top 2 primary. This is a predictably safe race for Inslee.
Rating: Safe D
WV-Gov: Jim Justice (D) v. Bill Cole (R) v. Charlotte Pritt (M) v. David Moran (L) v. Phil Hudok (C)
This seat is open due to Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin (D) being termed out. Justice is the narrow favorite to hold the Governorship for Team Blue in this rapidly reddening statewide level and pro-Trump state, but Cole could give the GOP the trifecta and send the West Virginia Democratic Party into almost irrelevance except for Joe Manchin (and even he isn’t immune to a potential upset in 2018).
Rating: Tilt D, but an upset could be possible.
(Ratings are as of the 11.05.2016 update)
My Schedule:
11.05.2016 (Afternoon): Ballot Measures.
11.05.2016 (Evening/Overnight): Missouri and Illinois
11.06.2016 (Afternoon): Gubernatorial
11.06.2016 (Evening/Overnight): House
11.07.2016 (Afternoon): Senate
11.08.2016 (Overnight): POTUS/VP + Final predictions + GOTV