With the election coming this Tuesday, here is my preview on the key US House elections that their state’s voters will be voting on Tuesday (or earlier if you already have done so).
AK-AL: Steve Lindbeck (D) v. Don Young (R) v. Jim McDermott (L)
Longtime incumbent Don Young (R) may finally be caught napping this year, but he’s still the narrow favorite.
Rating: Lean R.
AZ-01: Tom O'Halleran (D) v. Paul Babeu (R) v. Ray Parrish (G)
This seat is open due to Ann Kirkpatrick (D)’s run for Senate against John McCain (R).
Rating: Likely D.
AZ-02: Matt Heinz (D) v. Martha McSally (R)
Although Clinton will possibly win this seat, McSally’s the favorite here.
Rating: Likely R.
CA-07: Ami Bera (D) v. Scott Jones (R)
Rating: Likely D.
CA-10: Michael Eggman (D) v. Jeff Denham (R)
Rating: Tossup.
CA-21: Emilio Huerta (D) v. David Valadao (R)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt R.
CA-24: Salud Carbajal (D) v. Justin Fareed (R)
This seat is open due to Lois Capps (D)’s decision to not run for reelection.
Rating: Safe D.
CA-25: Bryan Caforio (D) v. Stephen Knight (R)
This seat could go either way.
Rating: Tossup.
CA-39: Brett Murdock (D) v. Edward Royce (R)
Rating: Likely R.
CA-42: Tim Sheridan (D) v. Ken Calvert (R)
Rating: Likely R.
CA-44: Nanette Barragán (D) v. Isadore Hall (D)
This seat is open due to Janice Hahn (D)’s decision to not run for reelection. This seat features 2 Democrats running (Barragán, Hall).
Rating: Safe D, Likely Hall.
CA-49: Doug Applegate (D) v. Darrell Issa (R)
This seat was fought to be a safe seat for the GOP, but Issa underperformed in the Top 2 all-party primary and his antics may have finally caught up with him.
Rating: Tossup/Tilt D.
CO-03: Gail Schwartz (D) v. Scott Tipton (R) v. Gaylon Kent (L)
Rating: Lean R.
CO-06: Morgan Carroll (D) v. Mike Coffman (R) v. Norm Olsen (L) v. Robert Lee Worthey (G)
This seat seems to be a close battle that Coffman might finally lose in.
Rating: Tilt D.
FL-07: Stephanie Murphy (D) v. John Mica (R)
This race is now a tossup, thanks to redistricting mandated by the state’s Supreme Court.
Rating: Tossup.
FL-13: Charlie Crist (D) v. David Jolly (R)
Former Gov. Charlie Crist (D, formerly R, then I) will likely be making a comeback this November.
Rating: Likely D.
FL-18: Randy Perkins (D) v. Brian Mast (R)
This seat is open due to Patrick Murphy (D) (who defeated Allen West (R) narrowly in 2012) is running for Senate to take on 2016 Presidential candidate Marco Rubio (R).
Rating: Tossup.
FL-26: Joe Garcia (D) v. Carlos Curbelo (R)
This seat will be a close one between former Congressman Garcia and Curbelo.
Rating: Tilt D.
IA-01: Monica Vernon (D) v. Rod Blum (R)
This race should be a major loss for Rod Blum on paper; however, with Trump being dominant in this state, as well as the state getting redder by the minute, Blum may just luck out a win.
Rating: Tilt R.
IA-03: Jim Mowrer (D) v. David Young (R) v. Bryan Holder (L)
Almost the same as IA-01; however, unlike that district, this district is in Republican-friendly territory.
Rating: Lean R.
IL-06: Amanda Howland (D) v. Peter Roskam (R)
While Clinton may win the district, Roskam’s still the favorite to win.
Rating: Safe R.
IL-08: Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) v. Pete DiCianni (R) This seat is open due to Duckworth’s run for Senate. After multiple primary losses, Krishnamoorthi finally gets win on Tuesday.
Rating: Safe D.
IL-10: Brad Schneider (D) v. Robert Dold (R)
This is the perpetual swing seat in Illinois, flipping every two years. Dold was victorious in the GOP-wave midterm years of 2010 and 2014, while Schneider got it in 2012 in a Presidential year.
Rating: Tilt D.
IL-12: C.J. Baricevic (D) v. Mike Bost (R) v. Paula Bradshaw (G)
This district has been historically Democratic; however, the trend favors the GOP. This will be an Obama 2012/Trump 2016 district. Baricevic’s message on trade issues should resonate here, but Bost is still the narrow favorite.
Rating: Lean R.
lL-13: Mark Wicklund (D) v. Rodney Davis (R)
This district has some prominent colleges (UIUC, Millikin, UIS), but Davis is still the favorite.
Rating: Safe R.
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) v. Patrick Harlan (R)
Rating: Safe D.
IN-02: Lynn Coleman (D) v. Jackie Walorski (R) v. Ron Cenkush (L)
Rating: Likely R.
IN-09: Shelli Yoder (D) v. Trey Hollingsworth (R) v. Russell Brooksbank (L)
This seat is open due to Todd Young (R)’s run for Senate against Evan Bayh (D). The GOP was fought to be given a guaranteed safe district here, but Yoder has kept it close and Hollingsworth’s residency issues are the reason why this race is very close. Not helping Hollingsworth’s matters are a Libertarian on the ballot.
Rating: Tossup/Tilt R.
KS-03: Jay Sidie (D) v. Kevin Yoder (R) v. Steve Hohe (L)
Rating: Lean R.
ME-02: Emily Cain (D) v. Bruce Poliquin (R)
This district features a 2014 rematch in which Poliquin prevailed. This district is also a tossup on the Presidential Electoral College map.
Rating: Tossup.
MI-01: Lon Johnson (D) v. Jack Bergman (R) v. Diane Bostow (L) v. Ellis Boal (G)
This seat is open due to Dan Benishek (R)’s retirement, and is seen as a tossup.
Rating: Tossup.
MI-06: Paul Clements (D) v. Fred Upton (R) v. Lorence Wenke (L)
Rating: Likely R, edging on Safe R.
MI-07: Gretchen Driskell (D) v. Tim Walberg (R) v. Ken Proctor (L)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt R.
MI-08: Suzanna Shkreli (D) v. Mike Bishop (R) v. Jeff Wood (L) v. Maria Green (G)
Rating: Likely R.
MI-11: Anil Kumar (D) v. David Trott (R) v. Jonathan Ray Osment (L) v. Kerry Bentivolio (I)
Rating: Likely R.
MN-02: Angie Craig (D) v. Jason Lewis (R) v. Paula Overby (I)
This seat is open due to John Kline (R)’s retirement.
Rating: Likely D.
MN-03: Terri Bonoff (D) v. Erik Paulsen (R)
Rating: Lean R.
MN-08: Rick Nolan (D) v. Stewart Mills (R)
This district is trending away from the Donkeys and with Trump possibly favored to win this district (or at least cut into PresiDem’s margin of victory), meaning that while Nolan is the narrow favorite, Mills can eke out a win.
Rating: Tilt D.
MO-02: Bill Otto (D) v. Ann Wagner (R) v. Jim Higgins (L)
Rating: Safe R.
MT-AL: Denise Juneau (D) v. Ryan Zinke (R) v. Rick Breckenridge (L)
Rating: Likely R.
NE-02: Brad Ashford (D) v. Don Bacon (R) v. Steven Laird (L)
This seat is a tossup at the Presidential level, but Ashford is favored to win another term.
Rating: Likely D.
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (D) v. Frank Guinta (R) v. Shawn O'Connor (I) v. Robert Lombardo (L)
Rating: Safe D.
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D) v. Scott Garrett (R) v. Claudio Belusic (L)
Scott Garrett’s days of heaping misery on this district are over.
Rating: Lean D.
NJ-07: Peter Jacob (D) v. Leonard Lance (R) v. Dan O'Neill (L)
Rating: Likely R.
NM-02: Merrie Soules (D) v. Steve Pearce (R)
Rating: Likely R.
NV-03: Jacky Rosen (D) v. Danny Tarkanian (R) v. Warren Markowitz (IAP)
This seat is open due to Joe Heck (R)’s run for Senate to replace Harry Reid (D).
Rating: Likely D.
NV-04: Ruben Kihuen (D) v. Cresent Hardy (R) v. Steve Brown (L) v. Mike Little (IAP)
Rating: Likely D.
NY-01: Anna Throne-Holst (D) v. Lee Zeldin (R) v. Kenneth Schaeffer (WFP)
Rating: Tilt R.
NY-02: DuWayne Gregory (D) v. Peter King (R)
Rating: Likely R, very close to Safe R.
NY-03: Tom Suozzi (D) v. Jack Martins (R)
This seat is open due to Steve Israel (D) deciding not to run for re-election.
Rating: Lean D, very close to Likely D.
NY-19: Zephyr Teachout (D) v. John Faso (R)
This seat is open due to Chris Gibson (R) deciding not to run for re-election.
Rating: Tossup.
NY-21: Republican Mike Derrick (D) v. Elise Stefanik (R) v. Matt Funiciello (G)
Rating: Likely R.
NY-22: Kim Myers (D) v. Claudia Tenney (R) v. Martin Babinec (I/UJ)
This seat is open due to Richard Hanna (R) deciding not to run for re-election. Babinec’s presence likely means a 3-way plurality win possible for either Tenney or Myers.
Rating: Tossup.
NY-23: John Plumb (D) v. Tom Reed (R)
Rating: Lean R.
NY-24: Colleen Deacon (D) v. John Katko (R) v. Mimi Satter (WFP)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt R.
OH-01: Michele Young (D) v. Steve Chabot (R)
Rating: Likely R.
PA-07: Mary Ellen Balchunis (D) v. Patrick Meehan (R)
Rating: Likely R.
PA-08: Steve Santarsiero (D) v. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
This seat is open due to Mike Fitzpatrick (R)’s decision not to run again.
Rating: Tossup.
PA-16: Christina Hartman (D) v. Lloyd Smucker (R) v. Shawn Patrick House (L)
This seat is open due to Joe Pitts (R)’s retirement.
Rating: Tossup/Tilt R.
TX-23: Pete Gallego (D) v. Will Hurd (R) v. Ruben Corvalan (L)
This seat features a 2014 rematch of Gallego v. Hurd.
Rating: Tilt D.
UT-04: Doug Owens (D) v. Mia Love (R) v. Collin Simonsen (C)
After some early hopes of retaking this seat for Team Blue, Love is favored to hold this seat, albeit with underwhelming margins.
Rating: Likely R.
VA-02: Shaun Brown (D) v. Scott Taylor (R)
This seat is open due to redistricting and Scott Rigell (R)’s retirement.
Rating: Likely R.
VA-05: Jane Dittmar (D) v. Tom Garrett (R)
This seat is open due to redistricting and Robert Hurt (R)’s retirement.
Rating: Lean R.
VA-07: Eileen Bedell (D) v. David Brat (R)
Rating: Likely R.
VA-10: LuAnn Bennett (D) v. Barbara Comstock (R)
Rating: Tilt D.
WI-08: Tom Nelson (D) v. Mike Gallagher (R)
This seat is open due to Reid Ribble (R)’s retirement.
Rating: Lean R.
Total House projection: 221-200-14, GOP.
(Ratings are as of the 11.05.2016 update)
My Schedule:
- 11.05.2016 (Afternoon): Ballot Measures.
- 11.05.2016 (Evening/Overnight): Missouri and Illinois
- 11.06.2016 (Afternoon): Gubernatorial
- 11.06.2016 (Evening/Overnight): House
- 11.07.2016 (Afternoon): Senate
- 11.08.2016 (Overnight): POTUS/VP + Final predictions + GOTV