With the election coming this Tuesday, here is my preview on the key gubernatorial elections that your state’s voters will be voting on Tuesday (or earlier if you already have done so).
NOTE: All races that are a hint competitive for either party or notable are profiled here.
(Ratings are as of the 11.02.2018 update) [Incumbent]
Alaska: Mark Begich (D) v. Mike Dunleavy (R) v. Bill Walker (I) v. Billy Toien (L)
With the incumbent Governor Bill Walker (I) suspending his race, this now becomes a competitive 2-way race between former Senator Mark Begich for the Democrats and Mike Dunleavy for the Republicans, with Libertarian Billy Toien as the 3rd wheel. Walker will still be on the ballot. With his campaign suspended, this race that seemed Likely R is now a tossup that could be won by either Dunleavy or Begich.
Rating: Tossup.
Arizona: David Garcia (D) v. Doug Ducey (R) v. Angel Torres (G) v. Cary D. Dolego (G-WI) v. Arthur Ray "RT" Arvizu (RT-WI) v. James "MarvelMan" Gibson II (H-WI) v. Christian Komor (WI) v. Patrick Masoya (WI)
Incumbent Doug Ducey (R) is hoping to keep his seat for another term in this Blue-trending state. He’s facing off against 2014 Superintendent of Public Instruction nominee David Garcia of the Democratic Party. This looked ripe for an upset for the Dems early on, but it appears that Ducey will retain his post for another four years.
Rating: Likely R.
California: Gavin Newsom (D) v. John Cox (R)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor Jerry Brown (D) from running again. As a result, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and former perennial candidate from Illinois John Cox (R) won the top two race in June to face the voters this November. Regardless of the year nowadays in the Golden State, you can write Newsom’s name in permanent marker for the next Governor of California.
Rating: Safe D.
Colorado: Jared Polis (D) v. Walker Stapleton (R) v. Scott Helker (R) v. Bill Hammons (Un)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor John Hickenlooper (D) from running again. Running here are Rep. Jared Polis for the Democrats and Treasurer Walker Stapleton for the GOP. With the way the state’s trending and the year this race is in, Polis is in pole position to keep the Governorship in Team Blue’s hands.
Rating: Likely D.
Connecticut: Ned Lamont (D) v. Bob Stefanowski (R) v. Rod Hanscomb (L) v. Oz Griebel (I)
This seat is open due to incumbent Governor Dannel Malloy (D) retiring. Running here are 2006 US Senate candidate Ned Lamont for the Democrats, CPA/CFA Bob Stefanowski for the GOP, and business person and ex-GOPer Oz Griebel as an Independent. The problems in this state under Malloy’s tenure and the presence of an Indie on the ticket hurts the Democrats here, but due to the lean of the state, I say Lamont narrowly prevails due to the environment of the year. If this election was in a GOP-favored year, then they would have a decent shot of flipping it… provided they have a good candidate and the Dems having an awful one.
Rating: Lean D.
Florida: Andrew Gillum (D) v. Ron DeSantis (R) v. Darcy G. Richardson (RP) v. Bruce Stanley (I) v. Kyle "KC" Gibson (I) v. Ryan Christopher Foley (I)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor Rick Scott (R) from running again. Running here for the Democrats is Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and far-right racist Congressman Ron DeSantis for the Republicans. During the mega GOP waves of 2010 and 2014, Scott only won narrowly. Will this finally be the year the Democrats regain the Governorship of Florida after a 20-year drought? I’d say all signs are pointing towards Gillum being the next Governor of the swingy Sunshine State.
Rating: Lean D. [Flip]
Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D) v. Bryan Kemp (R) v. Ted Metz (L)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor Nathan Deal (R) from running again. Running here for the Democrats is former State Rep. and Minority House Leader Stacey Abrams and Secretary of State Brian Kemp for the Republicans, who is conducting voter suppression operations to try to win this seat in a dirty manner. Will the GOP retain the seat for another four years in the fast-trending Blue state, or will the Dems reclaim this seat after a 16-year hiatus? The answer will most certainly not be settled until the runoff on December 4th.
Rating: Tossup, Safe Runoff. | Runoff Rating: Tossup, order uncertain.
Idaho: Paulette Jordan (D) v. Brad Little (R) v. Bev Boeck (L) v. Adam Phillips (I) v. Michael Richardson (I) v. John Thomas Wiechec (I)
This seat is open due to incumbent Governor Butch Otter (R) retiring. Running here are former Idaho State Rep. Paulette Jordan for the Democrats and incumbent Lt. Gov. Brad Little for the Republicans. Despite the excitement Jordan has generated through Idaho, this race will stay in GOP hands.
Rating: Safe R.
Illinois: JB Pritzker (D) v. Bruce Rauner (R) v. Kash Jackson (L) v. Sam McCann (CP)
This race to try to defeat Bruce Rauner, the incumbent Governor of my home state, has turned into a blowout win… for challenger JB Pritzker. Libertarian Kash Jackson and Conservative Party Sam McCann are vying to finish above 5% to get qualified party status. With Rauner’s massive problems the state’s lean, and the year this race is in, I can safely say that the next Governor of Illinois is Pritzker.
Rating: Safe D. [Flip]
Iowa: Fred Hubbell (D) v. Kim Reynolds (R) v. Jake Porter (L) v. Gary Siegwarth (I)
This race in Iowa between businessman Fred Hubbell for the Democrats and incumbent Governor Kim Reynolds for the Republicans will go down to the wire in this state that’s home to the first Caucus in the nation. Will Iowa further its slide to the right or will it snap back to the Democrats? That’s the answer we’ll find out this Tuesday. This race is a very close slugfest, but if I’m forced to pick a winner, I’d give the slight edge to Hubbell, especially with the year this election’s in.
Rating: Tossup.
Kansas: Laura Kelly (D) v. Kris Kobach (R) v. Greg Orman (I) v. Jeff Caldwell (L)
This seat is open due to the fact that the incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer (R) (who was elevated in the wake of termed-out former Gov. Sam Brownback (R) being appointed Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom) lost in the primary to far-right anti-immigrant hardliner and voter suppression artist Kris Kobach. Running here are Kansas State Sen. Laura Kelly for the Democrats, Secretary of State Kobach for the GOP, and 2014 de facto Democratic US Senate candidate Greg Orman as an Independent. This seat will be a very close tossup, thanks to Orman’s Indy bid.
Rating: Tossup.
Maine: Janet Mills (D) v. Shawn Moody (R) v. Terry Hayes (I) v. Alan Caron (I)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor Paul LePage(R) from running again.In this race that will feature ranked choice voting and the results may not be known right away due to the change, this seat will be a close battle between Attorney General Janet Mills for the Democrats and 2010 Independent Gubernatorial nominee Shawn Moody for the Republicans. The 2nd and 3rd preferences could decide who wins this seat. All the signs are pointing to the remnants of LePage’s reign collapsing, as Mills is likely to turn this seat back into the Donkeys’ column.
Rating: Lean D. [Flip]
Maryland: Ben Jealous (D) v. Larry Hogan (R) v. Ian Schlakman (G) v. Shawn Quinn (L)
This race features former NAACP CEO Ben Jealous for the Democrats and incumbent Governor Larry Hogan in this massively anti-Trump state. Hogan is favored to win re-election in this hugely Democratic state, despite the year largely going against his party. If Jealous can close the gap or even flip this seat, then it’ll be a great night for the Dems.
Rating: Likely R.
Massachusetts: Jay Gonzalez (D) v. Charlie Baker (R)
Incumbent moderate Republican Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker is facing off against Democratic former Administration and Finance Secretary Jay Gonzalez. A Baker win by around 25%-33% is expected to happen here; however, if Gonzalez gets above 30% or Baker gets less than 60%, the it’ll count as a moral victory for the Democrats.
Rating: Safe R.
Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer (D) v. Bill Schuette (R) v. Jennifer Kurland (G) v. Bill Gelineau (L) v. Todd Schleiger (UST) v. Keith Butkovich (NL)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor Rick Snyder (R) from running again. Running here are former State Senator and Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer for the Democrats and Attorney General Bill Schuette for the GOP. After 8 years of the disastrous Snyder regime, Michigan is on course to see a Blue Wave flip this seat.
Rating: Safe D. [Flip]
Minnesota: Tim Walz (D) v. Jeff Johnson (R) v. Josh Welter (L) v. Chris Wright (LMNP)
This seat is open due to incumbent Governor Mark Dayton (D) retiring. Running here for the Democrats is Rep. Tim Walz and Hennepin County Commissioner and 2014 Gubernatorial nominee Jeff Johnson for the Republicans. Despite a highly competitive primary, Walz is favored to be elected as the next Governor of Minnesota… especially in this type of environment. His coattails could end up dragging Dan Feehan (D) over the line in his old House district and possibly Congressman Keith Ellison (D) for Attorney General.
Rating: Safe D.
Nevada: Steve Sisolak (D) v. Adam Laxalt (R) v. Jared Lord (L) v. Ryan Bundy (I) v. Russell Best (IAP)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor Brian Sandoval (R) from running again. Running here are Clark County Commission Chair Steve Sisolak for the Democrats and Attorney General Adam Laxalt for the Republicans. This seat will be a close battle, but the edge narrowly goes to Sisolak in his bid to flip this seat Blue. Also not helping matters for Laxalt is the that there are 3 other candidates running from right-leaning small parties on the ballot, most notably far-right domestic terrorist lawbreaker Ryan Bundy of Bundy Ranch infamy.
Rating: Tilt D. [Flip]
New Hampshire: Molly Kelly (D) v. Chris Sununu (R) v. Jilletta Jarvis (L)
Running for this seat is incumbent Governor Chris Sununu for the GOP and former State Senator Molly Kelly for the Democrats. Sununu is favored for another 2-year term, but a Kelly upset cannot be ruled out, especially in this kind of year.
Rating: Lean R.
New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) v. Steve Pearce (R)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor Susana Martinez (R) from running again. Running here are Congresswoman Michelle Lujan Grisham for the Democrats and Congressman Steve Pearce for the GOP. This seat seems primed to flip to the Democrats once Martinez was termed out, and that’s what will happen this Tuesday.
Rating: Safe D. [Flip]
New York: Andrew Cuomo (D/IPA/WFP/WEP) v. Marc Molinaro (R/CP/RP) v. Howie Hawkins (G) v. Larry Sharpe (L) v. Stephanie Miner (SAM)
This race features potential 2020 contender Andrew Cuomo for the Democrats and Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro for the GOP. Cuomo’s getting an easy ride to Albany for another 4 years.
Rating: Safe D.
Ohio: Richard Cordray (D) v. Mike DeWine (R) v. Constance Gadell-Newton (G) v. Travis Irvine (L)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor and 2016 GOP Presidential candidate John Kasich (R) from running again. Running here are former Attorney General and former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Richard Cordray for the Democrats and Attorney General, former Senator, and former Lt. Gov. Mike DeWine for the Republicans. This seat will be a nailbiter for either side, and the results may not be known until the next day, so I can project it a tossup here.
Rating: Tossup.
Oklahoma: Drew Edmondson (D) v. Kevin Stitt (R) v. Chris Powell (L)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the corrupt incumbent Governor Mary Fallin (R) from running again. Running here are former Attorney General Drew Edmondson and 2010 Gubernatorial candidate for the Democrats and businessman Kevin Stitt for the Republicans. Due to the state’s Red lean, I believe Stitt narrowly pulls this one out despite the presence of the Libertarian Party on the ticket.
Rating: Lean R.
Oregon: Kate Brown (D) v. Knute Buehler (R) v. Nick Chen (L) v. Aaron Auer (C) v. Patrick Starnes (IPO)
Incumbent Kate Brown is running for the Democrats for the right to get a full term, as she won the 2016 special election to fill the remainder of former Gov. John Kitzhaber (D)’s term. Facing off against her for the Republicans is Oregon State House Rep. Knute Buehler. This race is a lot closer than what Democrats want here, but Brown should win here.
Rating: Lean D.
Pennsylvania: Tom Wolf (D) v. Scott Wagner (R) v. Paul Glover (G) v. Ken V. Krawchuk (L)
This matchup between incumbent Governor Tom Wolf for the Democrats and Pennsylvania State Senator and far-right antisemitic loon Scott Wagner for the Republicans. Wolf will get another term in Harrisburg, especially with this year’s environment,
Rating: Safe D.
Rhode Island: Gina Raimondo (D) v. Allan Fung (R) v. Joe Trillo (I) v. Bill Gilbert (M) v. Anne Armstrong (Comp) v. Luis-Daniel Munoz (I)
In a rematch of 2014, incumbent Governor Gina Raimondo is running here for the Democrats and Cranston Mayor Allan Fung is running for the GOP. Also running here is Independent and ex-GOPer Joe Trillo, who was a Rhode Island State Representative. All signs point to a Raimondo 2nd term here, especially in this pro-Democratic year.
Rating: Likely D.
South Carolina: James Smith Jr. (D) v. Henry McMaster (R)
This race features South Carolina State House Rep. James Smith Jr. for the Democrats and incumbent Governor Henry McMaster for the GOP. I’d expect McMaster to prevail here, but there is a chance that Smith Jr. could make it an interesting race.
Rating: Likely R.
South Dakota: Billie Sutton (D) v. Kristi Noem (R) v. Kurt Evans (L)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor Dennis Daugaard (R) from running again. Running here are South Dakota State Senator Minority Leader Billie Sutton for the Democrats and Congresswoman Kristi Noem for the Republicans. This state has a deep red lean, but it isn’t afraid to send Democrats to higher offices (esp. federal ones). As a result, I’d expect Noem to be narrowly favored here, but do not discount the possibility that Sutton (who is paralyze from the waist down) can pull off the upset.
Rating: Tilt R.
Tennessee: Karl Dean (D) v. Bill Lee (R)
This seat is open due to term limits prohibiting the incumbent Governor Bill Haslam (R) from running again. Running here are former Nashville Mayor Karl Dean for the Democrats and businessman Bill Lee for the Republicans. Had Rep. Diane Black won the GOP primary, then we’d be seeing a somewhat closer race, but with Black in the driver’s seat. With Lee’s win in the primary, this race will safely stay in the hands of the Evil Elephants.
Rating: Safe R.
Texas: Lupe Valdez (D) v. Greg Abbott (R) v. Mark Tippetts (L)
This race features incumbent Governor Greg Abbott for the Republicans and former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez for the Democrats. You can pretty much write in permanent marker that Abbott will continue to inflict damage to the State of Texas. I’d expect Abbott to win by 20%-25%; however, if Abbott’s winning margins are below 13%, then it’s a sign that the Democrats are showing life in the Lone Star State.
Rating: Safe R.
Vermont: Christine Hallquist (D) v. Phil Scott (R) v. Emily Peyton (LU) v. Stephen Marx (ER) v. Cris Ericson (I) v. Trevor Barlow (I) v. Charles Laramie (I)
This race features former Vermont Electric Cooperative CEO and the first openly trans major party candidate Christine Hallquist for the Democrats and incumbent Governor Phil Scott for the Republicans. Scott’s essentially going to win in this deep Blue state that has a tradition of electing moderate-ish Republicans as Governors (see Massachusetts), but if Hallquist loses by less than 10%, then it’ll be a good night. NOTE: If no one takes a majority of the vote, the governor will be chosen by the state legislature. The Democrats hold both the House and Senate in this state.
Rating: Safe R.
Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D) v. Scott Walker (R) v. Michael White (G) v. Phil Anderson (L)
This race features union-busting disgrace of an incumbent and 2016 GOP Presidential candidate Scott Walker is running for his third term for the Republicans. Challenging Walker for the Democrats is Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers. This race will be a closely fought one, but recent signs point to a big win for the unions, as #1 union-buster Walker may be heading for the exits at the ballot box as Evers will flip this seat to the Donkeys.
Rating: Lean D. [Flip]
My forecast for the Gubernatorials this year includes at least 7 flips and likely more to the Democrats, with Alaska being the only good opportunity to flip Republican (or Democratic). I am predicting the Dems have a 23-22-5 edge in holding the offices.
My 2018 General Election preview schedule:
- 11.01.18: Ballot Measures
- 11.02.18: US Senate
- 11.03.18: US House
- 11.04.18: Gubernatorial
- 11.05.18: Illinois + Missouri