With the election coming up tomorrow, here is my previews on the key elections of Illinois and Missouri that their state’s voters will be voting on tomorrow (or earlier if you already have done so).
NOTE: All races that are a hint competitive for either party or notable are profiled here.
US Senate
Missouri: Claire McCaskill (D) v. Josh Hawley (R) v. Jo Crain (G) v. Japheth Campbell (L) v. Craig O’Dear (I)
This race features incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill for the Democrats and Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley for the Republicans. Jo Crain for the Greens and Japheth Campbell for the Libertarians could make this race a real close one for either McCaskill or Hawley. Former Gov. Eric Greitens’ scandals (blackmail, tampering) could also have an impact here.
The last time this seat was up, McCaskill blew Todd “Legitimate Rape” Akin out of the water. Since then, the state has continued to hop far to the right, primarily because of the backlash to Ferguson and Concerned Student 1950, resulting in statewide ticket sweep for the GOP in 2016 powered by Trump’s massive win in the state.
Rating: Tossup.
US House
Illinois
IL-06: Sean Casten (D) v. Peter Roskam (R)
This race situated largely in historically GOP territory and meant to be a GOP vote sink for Roskam when redistricting took place in 2011 will instead have a Democrat representing this district. Casten looks like the favorite to flip this Donkey-trending seat to his party’s column for a bid to return Nancy Pelosi to the Speakership.
Rating: Lean D. [Flip]
IL-12: Brendan Kelly (D) v. Mike Bost (R) v. Randy Auxier (G)
This race in my home district features a district trending away from the Democratic Party and was drawn to elect a Democrat with the assumption that Jerry Costello (D) would stay and hold on; alas, he retired the next cycle, and his successor Bill Enyart (D) won in 2012, In 2014, however, he was ran out of Congress by the raging temper tantrum artist known as Mike Bost (R), who has held this seat ever since. In the present, this looks like a close battle between Kelly and Bost for the right to represent Southwestern Illinois. This looks like a tossup race with the tiniest of an edge to Bost. Not helping Kelly’s matters here is the fact that Bost is from Murphysboro in Jackson County (a Democratic county in most races due to Carbondale) and the presence of a Green on the ballot by the name of Randy Auxier, as their party has historically done decently well here (especially in Carbondale).
Rating: Tossup.
IL-13: Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (D) v. Rodney Davis (R)
This district’s race between incumbent Rodney Davis (who was at bat when the shooting incident against possible Speaker candidate Rep. Steve Scalise (R) happened in June 2017) and Betsy Dirksen Londrigan features some of the most prominent universities in the Land of Lincoln (UIUC, SIUE, ISU, UIS), thus it represents a swingy opportunity for the Dems to take this seat that they narrowly missed out on in 2012. On the other hand, this district contains portions that are still amenable to Dems but swung hard red (Macoupin, Montgomery, Calhoun, and Madison counties to a lesser extent). The Dems may actually have a better chance of flipping IL-13 than their former stronghold in IL-12. This race will be a close call between Davis and Dirksen Londrigan, unlike the last two elections here.
Rating: Tossup.
IL-14: Lauren Underwood (D) v. Randy Hultgren (R)
This race between Lauren Underwood and incumbent Randy Hultgren is taking place in what is meant to be a Safe GOP seat. But because of the year this race is in and the trends of the district, it’s a district to watch. Hultgren’s still the favorite to hold his seat for the GOP; however, an upset win by Underwood isn’t out of the question.
Rating: Lean R.
Missouri
MO-02: Cort VanOstran (D) v. Ann Wagner (R) v. David Arnold (G) v. Larry Kirk (L)
This seat was once home to 2012 Missouri Senate nominee Todd Akin (R), known for his “Legitimate Rape” controversy and rabid anti-abortion and other far-right extremism. Ann Wagner (R), who passed on the opportunity to challenge Sen. Claire McCaskill (D), is running against Cort Van Ostran. This seat is still favored to go Wagner’s way, but don’t be surprised if her winning margins are down to the single digits.
Rating: Lean R.
Gubernatorial
Illinois: JB Pritzker (D) v. Bruce Rauner (R) v. Kash Jackson (L) v. Sam McCann (CP)
This race to try to defeat Bruce Rauner, the incumbent Governor of my home state, has turned into a blowout win… for challenger JB Pritzker. Libertarian Kash Jackson and Conservative Party Sam McCann are vying to finish above 5% to get qualified party status. With Rauner’s massive problems the state’s lean, and the year this race is in, I can safely say that the next Governor of Illinois is Pritzker.
Rating: Safe D. [Flip]
Other Statewide Offices
Illinois
Attorney General: Kwame Raoul (D) v. Erika Harold (R) v. Bubba Harsy (L)
This seat is open due to the retirement of incumbent Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D). Running here are State Senator Kwame Raoul for the Democrats and 2014 Congressional candidate and 2003 Miss America winner Erika Harold for the GOP. This race will be closer than the Governor’s race, as it will be the most competitive office in the Land of Lincoln. The year this race is in, the far-right bonafides of Harold, and the state’s Blue lean should be enough to get Raoul through to keep this office in the Donkeys’ hands.
Rating: Lean D
Secretary Of State: Jesse White (D) v. Jason Helland (R) v. Steve Dutner (L)
Incumbent Democrat Jesse White should easily dispatch his Republican challenger Jason Helland, a Grundy County State's Attorney. This race will likely give the highest margins of Democratic victory.
Rating: Safe D.
Comptroller: Susana Mendoza (D) v. Darlene Senger (R) v. Claire Ball (L)
Incumbent Democrat Susana Mendoza will be favored for another term against former State Rep. Darlene Senger of the Republicans. Mendoza may decide to run for Chicago Mayor, and this race could be on the ballot again in 2020 to fill the remainder of her term with Pritzker’s likely appointee running should this scenario materialize.
Rating: Safe D.
Treasurer: Mike Frerichs (D) v. Jim Dodge (R) v. Mike Leheney (L)
After a very narrow win in 2014, incumbent Democrat Mike Frerichs can coast to re-election over Orland Park Village Trustee and 2010 Comptroller nominee Jim Dodge for the Republicans.
Rating: Safe D.
Missouri
Auditor: Nicole Galloway (D) v. Saundra McDowell (R) v. Don Fitz (G) v. Sean O'Toole (L) v. Jacob Luetkemeyer (C)
This battle for the Missouri Auditor race for the full term will be a heated battle as to whether the Democrats have a chance at securing/holding downballot offices or the state’s hard red turn at the statewide level be enough to flip this office to the GOP. Competing here are the appointed incumbent Nicole Galloway for the Democrats and attorney Saundra McDowell for the Republicans. Galloway is expected to outrun McCaskill by at 7%-14% due to the weakness of McDowell and the year this race is in.
Rating: Lean D.
State House
Illinois
IL-HD20: Merry Marwig (D) v. Michael McAuliffe (R)
Incumbent Republican State Rep. Michael McAuliffe is favored here, but not by as much as he’s accustomed to.
Rating: Tilt R.
IL-HD42: Kathleen Carrier (D) v. Amy Grant (R)
This seat is open due to far-right extremist State Rep. Jeanne Ives (R)’s run for Governor. Running here in the fast-slipping away from the GOP district is Kathleen Carrier for the Democrats and Amy Grant for the Republicans. Carrier is the narrow favorite to swing this seat to the Donkeys.
Rating: Tilt D. [Flip]
IL-HD48: Terra Costa Howard (D) v. Peter Breen (R)
This battle features far-right State Rep. Peter Breen (R) and challenger Terra Costa Howard (D) in this Dem-trending seat. I believe Breen’s days are over.
Rating: Lean D. [Flip]
IL-HD49: Karina Villa (D) v. Tonia Khouri (R)
This seat is open due to the retirement of State Rep. Mike Fortner (R). The battle in this GOP-friendly but trending blue seat between Karina Villa for the Dems and Tonia Khouri for the GOP will be close, but I’d say Khouri narrowly has the edge.
Rating: Tilt R.
IL-HD53: Mark Walker (D) v. Eddie Corrigan (R)
This seat is open due to the retirement of State Rep. David Harris (R). This could be another historically GOP district going to Team Blue if the stars align right.
Rating: Tossup.
IL-HD58: Bob Morgan (D) v. Fredric Lesser (R)
This seat is open due to State Rep. Scott Drury (D)’s run for Attorney General. Bob Morgan (D) is favored to keep this seat Blue.
Rating: Safe D.
IL-HD59: Daniel Didech (D) v. Karen Feldman (R)
This seat is open due to State Rep. Carol Sente (R)’s retirement. Daniel Didech (D) should keep this seat Blue.
Rating: Safe D.
IL-HD61: Joyce Mason (D) v. Sheri Jesiel (R)
This district continues to trend D, and incumbent Sheri Jesiel (R) could be in big trouble here.
Rating: Tilt D. [Flip]
IL-HD76: Lance Yednock (D) v. Jerry Lee Long (R)
The scandals involving incumbent Jerry Lee Long (R) could be enough to flip this seat back to Team Blue.
Rating: Lean D. [Flip]
IL-HD79: Lisa Dugan (D) v. Lindsay Parkhurst (R)
This seat between former State Rep. Lisa Dugan (D) and Lindsay Parkhust (D) is a pure tossup, as the previous Democrat Kathleen Cloonen won very narrowly in 2012 and 2014. Either person can win this seat.
Rating: Tossup.
IL-HD82: Tom Chlystek (D) v. Jim Durkin (R)
House Minority Leader Jim Durkin (R) has a contested House race for once. Still, he's favored to win this seat.
Rating: Likely R.
IL-HD91: Carolyn Blodgett (D) v. Michael Unes (R)
Incumbent Michael Unes (R) should hold off challenger Carolyn Blodgett (D) here, but don’t be surprised if Unes gets held to 57% or less.
Rating: Likely R.
IL-HD93: John Curtis (D) v. Norine Hammond (R)
A rematch of 2016 here between John Curtis (D) incumbent Norine Hammond (R). Hammond is favored, but don’t rule out a Curtis win.
Rating: Tilt R.
IL-HD95: Dillon Clark (D) v. Avery Bourne (R)
Avery Bourne (R) could be a future statewide candidate for the Illinois Republican party down the road, and Dillon Clark appears to be a somewhat credible challenger. Still, Bourne’s favored here, especially because of the McCann voter base in this district.
Rating: Likely R.
IL-HD99: Marc Bell (D) v. Mike Murphy (R)
This seat is open due to the retirement of Sara Wojcicki Jimenez. (R). Running here are Marc Bell for the Democrats and Mike Murphy for the Republicans.
Rating: Lean R.
IL-HD105: Benjamin Webb (D) v. Dan Brady (R)
This district features the city of Normal and ISU. Incumbent Dan Brady (R) has been uncontested in recent years; however, this year, he has a challenger in Benjamin Webb (D). Brady will prevail, but it’ll be a closer margin than usual due to the Blue Wave and some of the McLean County portions trending Democratic.
Rating: Lean R.
IL-HD107: Dave Seiler (D) v. Blaine Wilhour (R)
This seat is open due to the retirement of State Rep. John Cavaletto (R). Dave Seiler (D) and Blaine Wilhour (R) are facing off here. Wilhour should prevail just because of this district’s hard red lean, but it’ll be closer than Cavaletto’s winning margins.
Rating: Likely R.
IL-HD111: Monica Bristow (D) v. Mike Babcock (R)
This is my home State House district. Monica Bristow (D) is the appointed incumbent replacing State Rep. Dan Beiser (D). Mike Babcock (R) is running again after coming up just short of knocking Beiser off in this Obama 2x/Trump district. This could be one of the few districts the Dems can lose in the House, but I believe that Bristow holds on by less than 1.5% here.
Rating: Tossup/Tilt D
IL-HD112: Katie Stuart (D) v. Dwight Kay (R)
A rematch of 2016 here. Incumbent Katie Stuart (D) faces off against virulent misogynist and former State Rep. Dwight Kay (R). With this year shaping up to be a Blue year even in this Obama 2x/Trump district, Stuart’s in the driver’s seat here for another term.
Rating: Likely D.
IL-HD113: Jay Hoffman (D) v. Doug Jameson (R)
Incumbent Jay Hoffman will cruise to another term in Springfield.
Rating: Safe D
IL-HD115: Marsha Griffin (D) v. Terri Bryant (R)
This seat is home to SIUC and Mt. Vernon. Incumbent Terri Bryant (R) has the narrow edge over Marsha Griffin (D).
Rating: Tilt R.
IL-HD116: Jerry Costello II (D) v. David Friess (R)
Incumbent Jerry Costello II (D) went unopposed last time, and this cycle, he gets a challenger in David Friess (R). Had Costello II been opposed last cycle, I believe that he would’ve won, but it would’ve been within 6% due to the district’s massive hard-right shift and the Trump wave here. Costello II is favored to win another term, but don’t expect this to be an easy one for him.
Rating: Likely D.
IL-HD117: Jason Woolard (D) v. Dale Severin (R)
Incumbent Dale Severin won this seat in 2016 due to the Trump wave purging the former occupant John Bradley (D). He is in the fight of his life here, and I believe this seat is a tossup in the hard-red (but not as much as HD118) seat.
Rating: Tossup.
IL-HD118: Natalie Phelps Finnie (D) v. Patrick Windhorst (R)
Natalie Phelps Finnie (D) holds this blood red seat that is favorable to Democrats at the countywide level, but hostile to her party at levels above this seat. She faces off against Patrick Windhorst (R). Phelps Finnie could be one of the very few Dems not surviving tomorrow’s election and could lose it.
Rating: Tilt R. [Flip]
Missouri
MO-HD10: Shane Thompson (D) v. Bill Falkner (R)
Rating: Likely D.
MO-HD14: Matt Sain (D) v. Kevin Corlew (R)
Rating: Lean R.
MO-HD30: Ryana Parks-Shaw (D) v. Jon Patterson (R) v. Brad Eichstadt (L)
This seat is vacant due to former State Rep. Mike Cierpiot (R)’s election to the State Senate.
Rating: Lean R.
MO-HD35: Keri Ingle (D) v. Tom Lovell (R)
This seat is open due to State Rep. Gary Cross (R) being termed out. This could be a close one, but still favoring the GOP.
Rating: Lean R
MO-HD50: Michela Skelton (D) v. Sara Walsh (R)
This will be a rematch of the 2017 special between Michela Skelton (D) and incumbent Sara Walsh (R).
Rating: Lean R.
MO-HD70: Paula Brown (D) v. Mark Matthiesen (R) v. Carol Hexem (G)
Rating: Tossup.
MO-HD89: Kevin Fitzgerald (D) v. Dean Plocher (R)
Rating: Likely R.
MO-HD94: Jean Pretto (D) v. Jim Murphy (R)
This seat is vacant to the death of State Rep. Cloria Brown (R). This swingy seat between Jean Pretto (D) and Jim Murphy (R) will be a very close nailbiter.
Rating; Tossup.
MO-HD95: Mike Walter (D) v. Michael O'Donnell (R)
This seat is open due to State Rep. Marsha Haefner (R) being termed out. Still, this seat will stay in GOP hands.
Rating: Likely R.
MO-HD96: Erica Hoffman (D) v. David Gregory (R)
This district will see a Democratic challenger after several cycles without one.
Rating: Likely R.
MO-HD97: Mike Revis (D) v. Mary Coleman (R)
Incumbent Mike Revis (D) won this district in a special election due to former State Rep. John McCaherty (R)’s resignation. This race will be a tossup between Revis and challenger Mary Coleman (R).
Rating: Tossup.
MO-HD98: Charles Triplett (D) v. Shamed Dogan (R)
Rating: Safe R.
MO-HD99: Mike LaBozzetta (D) v. Jean Evans (R)
Rating: Likely R.
MO-HD100: Helena Webb (D) v. Derek Grier (R)
Rating: Likely R.
MO-HD106: Jackie Sclair (D) v. Chrissy Sommer (R)
Rating: Likely R.
MO-HD113: Karen Settlemoir-Berg (D) v. Dan Shaul (R)
Rating: Likely R.
MO-HD118: Barbara Marco (D) v. Mike McGirl (R)
This seat is open due to State Rep. Ben Harris (D) being termed out.
Rating: Safe R. [Flip]
State Senate
Illinois
IL-SD41: Bridget Fitzgerald (D) v. John Curran (R)
This seat was held by former State Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno (R). Running here are Bridget Fitzgerald (D) and incumbent John Curran (R). This race is shaking up to be a tossup.
Rating: Tossup.
IL-SD48: Andy Manar (D) v. Seth McMillan (R)
This race features potential Congressional or statewide candidate in incumbent State Sen. Andy Manar (D) and challenger Seth McMillan (R). Despite this district’s turn to the right, Manar’s a lock to win here, especially with the year this race is in. Don’t be surprised that is one of the best districts for McCann to do well in the Governor’s race.
Rating: Safe D.
IL-SD54: Brian Stout (D) v. Jason Plummer (R)
This seat is open due to far-right State Sen. Kyle McCarter (R) retiring. Running here are Brian Stout (D) and 2010 Lt. Gov. nominee and 2012 Congressional nominee Jason Plummer (R). Stout’s a good candidate, but this district’s just too blood red for him to win, so Plummer’s FINALLY going to win elected office.
Rating: Safe R.
IL-SD56: Rachelle Aud Crowe (D) v. Hal Patton (DU, de facto Republican)
This is my State Senate district. This seat is open due to the retirement of State Sen. Bill Haine (D). Running here is prosecutor Rachelle Aud Crowe (D) and Edwardsville mayor Hal Patton (DU). Patton’s campaign has been off on the wrong foot at least twice, including the petition signing fiasco that prevented him from running as a Republican and the racist blackface incident. Patton is running on the Downstate United party, and is effectively the Republican in this race. The race screams an Aud Crowe win in this Obama 2x/Trump district, especially with the year this race is in and the caliber of the candidates running.
Rating: Safe D.
IL-SD57: Christopher Belt (D) v. Tanya Hildebrand (R)
This seat is open due to the retirement of State Sen. James Clayborne (D). Running here are Christopher Belt (D) and Tanya Hildebrand (R). Belt will win this district with ease.
Rating: Safe D.
IL-SD59: Steve Webb (D) v. Dale Fowler (R)
This blood-red district that is amenable to electing Democrats at the county level and below is home to incumbent Dale Fowler (R) and challenger Steve Webb (D). Fowler’s a lock for another term here.
Rating: Likely R.
Missouri
MO-SD02: Patrice Billings (D) v. Bob Onder (R)
Rating: Safe R.
MO-SD08: Hillary Shields (D) v. Mike Cierpiot (R)
Rating: Tossup.
MO-SD22: Robert Butler (D) v. Paul Wieland (R) v. Richie Camden (L)
Rating: Likely R.
MO-SD24: Jill Schupp (D) v. Gregory Powers (R) v. Jim Higgins (L)
Rating: Likely D.
MO-SD30: Charlie Norr (D) v. Lincoln Hough (R)
This seat is open due to State Sen. Bob Dixon (R) being termed out. Still, this seat will stay in GOP hands.
Rating: Likely R.
Judiciary
Illinois
5th Appellate Court (Richard P. Goldenhersh vacancy): Kevin Hoerner (D) v. David Overstreet (R) | Vote Hoerner!
3rd Judicial Circuit (Barb Crowder vacancy) [Madison and Bond counties]: Sarah Smith (D) v. Mark Rabe (R) | Vote Smith!
3rd Judicial Circuit (John Barberis Jr. vacancy) [Madison County]: Marc Parker (D) v. David Dugan (R) | Vote Parker!
Judicial Retention:
Illinois
3rd Circuit Court: Kyle Napp: VOTE YES, Dave Hylla: VOTE YES.
Supreme Court: Anne Burke (D): VOTE YES.
Missouri
Supreme Court: Mary Rhodes Russell (Holden): VOTE YES, Wesley Brent Powell (Greitens): Vote NO!
Ballot Measures
Illinois:
Counties with Gun Sanctuary ballot measures opposing gun control (Madison, La Salle, Macoupin, Logan): Vote NO!
Missouri:
Missouri Amendment 1 (Campaign Finance, Elections, Lobbying, Redistricting) | Recommendation: Vote YES! Projection: Safe Pass.
Missouri Amendment 2 (Marijuana, Medical Marijuana) | Recommendation: Vote YES! Projection: Likely Pass.
Missouri Amendment 3 (Marijuana, Medical Marijuana) | Recommendation: Vote NO!Projection: Likely Fail.
Missouri Amendment 4 (Bingo, Gambling) | Recommendation: Vote YES. Projection: Safe Pass.
Missouri Proposition B (Minimum Wage) | Recommendation: Vote YES! Projection: Safe Pass.
Missouri Proposition C (Marijuana, Medical Marijuana) | Recommendation: Vote NO! Projection: Likely Pass.
Countywide
Illinois
Madison County Treasurer: Chris Miller (D) v. Chris Slusser (R) | Vote Miller!
Madison County Clerk: Debbie Ming-Mendoza (D) v. Steve Adler (R) | Vote Ming-Mendoza!
Madison County Regional Superintendent of Schools (open due to Bob Daiber running for Governor): Andrew Reinking (D) v. Rob Werden (R) | Vote Reinking!
St. Clair County Sheriff: Rick Watson (D) v. Nick Gailius (R) | Vote Watson!
St. Clair County Treasurer: Andrew Lopinot (D) v. Phil Kammann (R) | Vote Lopinot!
Missouri
St. Louis County Executive: Steve Stenger (D) v. Paul Berry III (R) v. Nick Kasoff (L) v. Andrew Ostrowski (C)| Vote Stenger!
St. Louis County Prosecutor: Wesley Bell (D) | Vote Bell!
St. Louis County Assessor: Jake Zimmerman (D) v. Dan Hyatt (R) v. Jeff Coleman (L) | Vote Zimmerman!
My 2018 General Election preview schedule:
- 11.01.18: Ballot Measures
- 11.02.18: US Senate
- 11.03.18: US House
- 11.04.18: Gubernatorial
- 11.05.18: Illinois + Missouri