With the election coming tomorrow, here is my preview on the key US Senate elections that their state’s voters will be voting tomorrow (or earlier if you already have done so).
Arizona: Ann Kirkpatrick (D) v. John McCain (R) v. Gary Swing (G)
This seat features the 2008 GOP nominee (McCain) versus Democratic Congresswoman (Kirkpatrick). Despite issues with him by the activist GOP base, McCain is more likely than not to hold on for another 6 years.
Rating: Likely R.
California: Kamala Harris (D) v. Loretta Sanchez (D)
This seat is open due to the retirement of Barbara Boxer (D). The battle to replace Boxer will be fought by two Democrats (Harris, Sanchez). It looks like Harris has the upper hand here, as she will go on to be a national superstar for the party.
Rating: Safe D, Likely Harris.
Colorado: Michael Bennet (D) v. Darryl Glenn (R) v. Lily Tang Williams (L) v. Arn Menconi (G)
Michael Bennet looks secure to hold this seat for Team Blue, as Darryl Glenn (a C- lister at best for the Colorado GOP) will get blown out big time at the polls.
Rating: Safe D.
Florida: Patrick Murphy (D) v. Marco Rubio (R) v. Paul Stanton (L)
This battle is between Patrick Murphy (D) and 2016 GOP Presidential candidate Little Marco Rubio. If Rubio wins, his odds of running in the 2020 GOP Presidential primary will improve. If Murphy wins, then Little Marco’s political career is dead in the water.
Rating: Lean R.
Illinois: Tammy Duckworth (D) v. Mark Kirk (R) v. Kenton McMillen (L) v. Scott Summers (G)
In the battle for President Obama’s old Senate seat, incumbent Kirk and challenger Duckworth battle it out to see who will get to serve for the next six years. The state’s lean, especially in Presidential years, favors Duckworth’s party. Kirk’s pretty much a goner at this point, especially after the racist insult he spewed at her at a recent debate between the two.
Rating: Safe D. Duckworth is favored to give this seat back to Team Blue.
Indiana: Evan Bayh (D) v. Todd Young (R) v. Lucy Brenton (L)
This seat is open due to the retirement of Dan Coats (R). The initial Democrat running here was Baron Hill, then dropped out in deference to former Sen. Evan Bayh (D). Bayh was favored to win this seat for much of this election, but Young has closed the cap. This seat could go either way, and possibly decide who controls the Senate.
Rating: Tossup/Tilt D.
Iowa: Patty Judge (D) v. Chuck Grassley (R) v. Charles Aldrich (L)
This seat is home to SCOTUS chief obstructor Chuck Grassley (R). There was some hope that he’d finally be voted out this year, but that won’t happen. This state is getting redder by the second, so Grassley is favored to win, but the margin of victory will be smaller than in the past.
Rating: Safe R.
Missouri: Jason Kander (D) v. Roy Blunt (R) v. Jonathan Dine (L) v. Jonathan McFarland (G) v. Fred Ryman (C)
The battle between Blunt and Kander in this reddening state is a lot closer than what anybody predicted to be. Conservative Washington insider and lobbyist (Blunt) v. Moderate military man who served our country proudly (Kander) is the storyline of this particular race.
Rating: Tossup/Tilt R. The race is close, but Blunt has consistently held narrow leads and the state’s lean means he’s favored. Kander could pull off a win.
Nevada: Catherine Cortez Masto (D) v. Joe Heck (R)
This seat is open due to the retirement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D). Heck has basically no shot to win, based on early voting numbers. Cortez Masto is favored, as the seat is kept in Team Blue’s hands.
Rating: Lean D.
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D) v. Kelly Ayotte (R) v. Brian Chabot (L)
This race was a very close one throughout, and I believe that Hassan may pull off a victory to give Democrats a great chance at controlling the Senate.
Rating: Tilt D.
North Carolina: Deborah Ross (D) v. Richard Burr (R) v. Sean Haugh (L)
Incumbent Richard Burr (R) got lucky when his two elections were favorable to his party, but he may not be so lucky this time. His recent deplorable comments suggesting that gun owners shoot Hillary means that his time in the Senate is hopefully over. Deborah Ross (D) wasn’t the Dems first or 2nd choice to run, but she’s made it close enough to probably eke out a win and aid Senate control back to the Donkeys.
Rating: Pure Tossup.
Ohio: Ted Strickland (D) v. Rob Portman (R) v. Joseph DeMare (G)
In a race that was thought to be a close one between the two early on, it turns out that Rob Portman (R) is going to coast to re-election. Ted Strickland (D) getting blown out big time does not bode well for the Ohio Democratic Party going forward, and Sherrod Brown (D)’s chances of holding on in 2018 are in serious jeopardy (especially if Trump wins the state).
Rating: Safe R.
Pennsylvania: Katie McGinty (D) v. Pat Toomey (R) v. Edward Clifford III (L)
With this race being the one that could decide which party controls the Senate, both candidates are running a close race, with McGinty favored in recent weeks and is improving her odds of winning.
Rating: Likely D.
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold (D) v. Ron Johnson (R) v. Phil Anderson (L)
In a 2010 rematch between Russ Feingold (D) and Ron Johnson (R) that the GOP candidate won, Feingold will be hungry for revenge as he looks to take back his seat and give the Democrats a good chance at regaining the Senate majority. The polls have tightened here recently, but the stalwart progressive Dem is still the favorite here.
Rating: Likely D.
(Ratings are as of the 11.05.2016 update)
Total Senate projection: 50-47-3, Dems regain the chamber, via VP tiebreaker.
My Schedule:
- 11.05.2016 (Afternoon): Ballot Measures.
- 11.05.2016 (Evening/Overnight): Missouri and Illinois
- 11.06.2016 (Afternoon): Gubernatorial
- 11.06.2016 (Evening/Overnight): House
- 11.07.2016 (Afternoon): Senate
- 11.08.2016 (Overnight): POTUS/VP + Final predictions + GOTV